Total Telecom
As many as 1.2 million new jobs could result over the next decade from
widespread adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies, according
to a study released today by the New Millennium Research Council. The
report, from Criterion Economics LLC, suggests that the quarter of a million
redundancies in the telecommunications and equipment sectors between 2002-2003
could be reversed within five years. "This study documents quantitatively
what many others have only hinted at qualitatively," said Criterion senior
vice president Hal Singer.
"The 1.2 million jobs reflect the economy-wide stimulus that results
from telephone and cable industries competing to roll out DSL and cable
modem service, and generally to roll out advanced broadband service to
residential and small business customers, assuming they were constrained
only by consumer demand and underlying costs." The study shows that new
investment will initially focus on current broadband technology, developing
to encompass more advanced technology as time goes on. It estimates that
capital expenditure on today's technology will reach $63.6 billion by
2021 and stimulate a cumulative increase in U.S. GDP of $179.7 billion.
CED Broadband Magazine
Study: Widespread broadband could lead to job surge
There are apparently a few people still out there optimistic enough to
see the technology glass as half-full.
The current telecom sector job slide could be reversed by 2008, thanks
to jobs created in the wake of widespread consumer adoption of broadband
technologies, forecasts the New Millennium Research Council.
The Council noted in its new "qualitative" study of the sector that a
mass acceptance of broadband - and continued competition between the companies
that offer it -- could generate up to 1.2 million new jobs in the next
five years, enough to more than restore the 250,000 telecom service and
equipment jobs that evaporated between 2000 and 2003.
Those new jobs "reflect the economy-wide stimulus that results from telephony
and cable industries competing to rollout DSL and cable modem service,
and gradually to rollout broadband service to residential and small business
customers, assuming they were constrained only by consumer demand and
underlying costs," said Criterion Economics Senior Vice President Hal
Singer.
DSL providers are in fact trying to push the competitive needle by slashing
prices, but most cable operators have not done the same. Instead, some
operators are beginning to focus on the value of the connection, testing
speed caps twice the normal range. Comcast Corp., following some early
tests in select markets, is expected to roll out a 3 Mbps downstream tier
across the board possibly as early as year-end 2003.
The study's authors goes on to predict that the removal of remaining
regulations "would have an immediate impact on the economy by stimulating
greater investment and accelerated job and income growth."
SEPTEMBER 19, 2003
Communications (and Internet) Daily
Widespread adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies could
produce more than 1.2 million new U.S. jobs over the next decade, said
a study by the New Millennium Research Council and Criterion Economics.
It estimated that more than 250,000 telecom service and equipment sector
jobs lost in 2000-2003 could be restored in 5 years. "The 1.2 million
jobs reflect the economy-wide stimulus that results from telephone and
cable industries competing to roll out DSL and cable modem service, and
gradually to roll out advanced broadband service to residential and small
business customers, assuming they were constrained only by consumer demand
and underlying costs," said Criterion Economics Senior Vp Hal Singer.
Criterion Economics Chmn. Robert Crandall said the govt. must lift all
remaining regulations on broadband to stimulate greater investment and
accelerated job and income growth. However, he said, for the investments
to be justified, "regulators must assure investors that the returns from
investing in broadband technologies will not be appropriated through the
regulatory process. The estimates of benefits assume that incumbent cable
operators and local exchange carriers have an incentive to invest, which
will require not only unbundling relief, but also elimination of existing
common carrier regulations."
According to the U.S. Dept. of Labor, employment in the communications
services sector decreased to 1 million in Jan. 2003 from 1.2 million in
Dec. 2000, and in the communications equipment sector it dropped to 200,900
in Jan. 2003 from 290,000 in Dec. 2000. Crandall estimated the capital
expenditures by broadband providers would "more than restore those job
losses by the end of 2008 if residential adoption follows this faster
growth scenario." The study projected that capital expenditure on today's
broadband technologies would reach $63.6 billion by 2021 and create a
cumulative increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of $179.7 billion.
However, Singer predicted the emphasis in investment would change over
time, with fiber optic in the "last mile" eventually replacing more than
1/3 of today's broadband technology.
"Despite this displacement, the net effect of advanced broadband investment
would be $82 billion of investment by 2021 under the slower deployment
scenario," he said. Crandall said "unleashing the full potential of broadband
communications could generate $300 billion per year in consumer surplus...
Accelerating the adoption rate of current generation broadband technologies
could increase the present discounted value of consumer benefits by as
much as $500 billion." The study also said wider availability of broadband
would benefit the computer industry, which would have a "surge in demand,"
as consumers would buy new PCs with more random access memory, faster
bus speed, better sound and much higher capacity hard drives to take full
advantage of advanced broadband services.
Telecom A.M.
Broadband Deregulation Could Restore Lost Telecom Jobs, Study Says
Broadband deregulation legislation is a perennial favorite in Congress,
despite the fact the bills never seem to gain traction. Legislation to
promote adoption of broadband technology often is promoted as a "jobs
bill" and recent research by the New Millennium Research Council and Criterion
Economics gives new ammunition to that argument. The study predicts widespread
adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies could produce
more than 1.2 million new U.S. jobs over the next decade. It claims that
the more than 250,000 telecom service and equipment sector jobs lost in
2000-2003 could be restored in 5 years.
The catch is that these results require an almost total deregulation
of the Bells -- an idea that never has flown in Congress. Jobs benefits
"assume that incumbent cable operators and local exchange carriers have
an incentive to invest," which will require not only relief from network
unbundling, "but also elimination of existing common carrier regulations,"
said Criterion Economics Chmn. Robert Crandall.
Crain's Detroit/Michigan CrainTech.com
Adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies could result
in 1.2 million new jobs, according to a study released by the New Millennium
Research Council.
Criterion Economics L.L.C. Senior Vice President Hal Singer said in news
release, "This study documents quantitatively what many others have only
hinted at qualitatively."
Criterion commissioned the study. If true, this would mean a reversal
of current employment trends in communications. Data from the U.S. Department
of Labor points to a net decrease in jobs in the sector, from 1.2 million
in December 2000 to 1 million in January 2003.
According to the study, wider availability of broadband would result
in large benefits for the retailing, transportation, home entertainment
and health care sectors.
IT Services Business Report
Telecommunication could boom again, says study
The New Millennium Research Council, a policy research group, has released
a study saying 1.2 million new jobs could be created in the next 10 years
with existing and advanced broadband technology becoming more widely accepted.
M2 Communications Presswire
According to a study released today by the New Millennium Research Council,
as many as 1.2 million new jobs could result over the next decade from
widespread adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies. The
new report from Criterion Economics L.L.C. concludes that the more than
250,000 telecommunications service and equipment sector jobs lost between
2000-2003 could be restored inside of five years.
Read the story here- http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030917/dcw029_1.html
SEPTEMBER 20, 2003
Santa Rosa, California Press-Democrat
Study: New Jobs Likely at Telecoms
A new study released Wednesday predicts that as many as 1.2 million jobs
will be created in the next decade as broadband technology advances.
About 250,000 telecommunications service and equipment sector jobs could
be created within five years, according to the report by Criterion Economics
L.L.C. and released by the Washington, D.C.- based New Millennium Research
Council.
"The 1.2 million jobs reflect the economy-wide stimulus that results
from telephone and cable industries competing to roll out DSL and cable
modem service, and gradually to roll out advanced broadband service to
residential and small-business customers, assuming they were constrained
only by consumer demand and underlying costs," said Hal Singer, Criterion
Economics senior vice president.
SEPTEMBER 22, 2003
Fiber Optics News
Broadband Could Drive Jobs, GDP; Dereg Could Put The Pedal To The
Metal
According to a study released by the New Millennium Research Council,
researched by Criterion Economics LLC and funded by Verizon, as many as
1.2 million new jobs could result during the next decade from widespread
adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies, including fiber-to-the-anyplace
(FTTx).
Using U.S. Department of Labor numbers, employment in the communications-
services sector decreased from 1.2 million in December 2000 to 1 million
in January 2003--a total of 170,100 lost jobs, says Criterion Economics
Chairman Robert Crandall.
"Employment in the communications equipment sector decreased from 290,000
in December 2000 to 200,900 in January 2003--a total of 89,100 lost jobs.
Across these two sectors of the communications industry, more than a quarter
of a million jobs were lost during the 25-month period," he says. "We
estimate that the capital expenditures by broadband providers would more
than restore those job losses by the end of 2008 if residential adoption
follows this faster growth scenario."
Crandall and Criterion began their research by asking, "What would happen
if we got accelerated broadband rollout to everyone? What would it be
worth, and what would it generate in benefits to the economy? How much
would it generate in terms of new jobs? What will the rollout of broadband
do for the rest of the economy?" The group concluded that the gross domestic
product (GDP) would grow through increased investment and increased jobs.
Before accounting for the effect of more advanced access technologies,
the authors of the study estimate capital expenditure on today's broadband
technologies (DSL and cable modems, and not FTTx) will reach $63.6 billion
by 2021, thus creating a cumulative increase in GDP of $179.7 billion.
However, the last part of the report focuses on the impact of "more advanced
technologies," which would include ubiquitous next-gen fiber. Says Hal
Singer, senior vice president of Criterion Economics, "The emphasis in
investment would gradually change over time, with fiber optics in the
'last mile' eventually replacing more than one-third of today's broadband
technology."
Criterion chose to use the term "more advanced technologies" because
it didn't want to predict that there would be rollout of FTTx or any particular
technology during the next 10 years. "It could evolve into fiber to the
home (FTTH) or it could be just outside the home, with the optical/electrical
conversion taking place elsewhere and then feeding the signal by some
metallic connection like copper or coax cable into the premises," Crandall
told Fiber Optics News.
The research group used capital expenditure estimates from Darryl Ponder,
CEO of Optical Solutions Inc., who estimates the current cost to pass
a home with FTTH is $900 and the cost to serve a home is $2,200. To project
investment through 2021, Criterion assumed the ratio of homes served to
homes passed increases by 3 percent per year from its existing ratio of
0.312. The cumulative investment in "more advanced access technologies"
will be $93.4 billion between now and 2021, the report says. The investment
should reach $45.3 billion by 2013.
The Regulation Bugaboo
While the study was not designed to rail against the current state of
legislative and regulatory telecom affairs, the mere facts that Verizon
commissioned it, and its authors and backers are deregulation-prone offered
up a chance to try and influence some near-future decisions, including
the outcome of any Triennial Review or TELRIC litigation and rulemakings.
In fact, its closing paragraph states, "The results of our analysis depend
on the regulatory climate chosen by federal and state agencies. The benefits
that we have estimated assume that incumbent carriers have an incentive
to invest, which will require not only unbundling relief, but also elimination
of existing common carrier regulations."
"Regulation of broadband has been in front of regulators and legislators,
and back and forth to the courts. The FCC took six months to finally put
out its rules, and there is enormous uncertainty," says Crandall. "The
rules themselves are so complicated, and many people believe they are
not responsive to what the court of appeals wanted. They are likely to
be reversed again. This uncertainty as to broadband regulation creates
a very difficult environment in which to make investments."
The report cites several studies, including one by Cambridge Strategic
Management Group that said FTTH would be deployed to six times more homes
during the next decade if the FCC eliminated the unbundling obligations
relating to fiber networks, representing an additional $3.9 billion of
investment by incumbent carriers per year. The Precursor Group also estimates
fiber investment would increase by between $1.5 billion and $3 billion
per year if the industry were deregulated.
Focusing more on how deregulation of the telecom industry would help
the economy at large, John Rutledge, chairman of Rutledge Capital, spun
the report this way: "What a wonderful world it would be if Congress and
regulators would stop playing political games that keep broadband rollouts
from happening. Today's broadband is tomorrow's snail mail. Deregulating
telecom in the ways discussed in this paper is one way to stimulate growth
and productivity. It would also cause the deficit to decrease, and it
would generate income and tax receipts. It is the free lunch economists
have been looking for."
All It Takes Is $$
Rutledge believes regulators and legislators have to start thinking not
only of capital investments today but for the next generation and the
generation after that. "All that requires capital spending. Capital spending
is really bottled-up energy to use in the future for growth," he says.
"The future is all about capital. Capital obeys the law. The first law
of thermodynamics says capital runs from low-return to high-return situations.
Policies that depress the return on capital drive it away. U.S. regulatory
policy has posted a "not welcome" sign for capital in telecom and technology
in terms of forced access, price controls (in the form of TELRIC), broadband
regulations and the inherent uncertainty of policy."
Adam Thierer, director of telecommunications studies at Washington, D.C.'s
Cato Institute, also believes telecom regulation, especially the Triennial
Review, needs to be revisited to facilitate investment. "Legislators and
regulators had better get the rules of the road right or there will be
a steep price paid by consumers, workers and the broader economy in terms
of massive foregone economic and investment opportunity," he says. "So
what are those rules of the road? For one thing, a minimally regulated
space for broadband network services and technologies. Regulators must
not allow the regime they've created for older technologies to creep into
this new, exciting world of communications and connectivity. We need new
rules for a new world, especially if we hope to incent the type of ubiquitous
broadband infusion this paper envisions.
Criterion's Singer agrees, adding, "Ubiquitous broadband penetration
also will spur more investment in related industries, as they will be
able to sell more goods and services over the Internet. If investment
in these broadband-dependent industries increases by just 10 percent,
we would add another 665,000 jobs on top of the 546,000 that would be
created by the fast-rollout assumption, for a total of 1.2 million new
jobs."
But Rutledge gets the last word. "We hear a lot about regulators who
are judging their progress by how much they're able to show reduced prices
for services. Reduced prices are one of the implications of capital spending,
and they're happening at a rapid pace," he says. "What we should measure
regulators by is their degree of success in generating capital spending.
Capital spending is the seed corn for growth and living standards for
the future. Rent control lowers prices, too, but it also can destroy the
housing stock. Price controls in telecom are another example of rent control,
and they're doing immense damage. We should do things that generate capital
formation."
Robert Crandall and Hal Singer, 202/331-9738; Adam Thierer, athierer@cato.org;
John Rutledge, 203/966-5200
Spending On "More Advanced Access Technologies" 2003-2021Year Adoption
Rate of Weighted Average Capex
More Advanced Access Cost Per Home Passed/ (in millions)
Technologies (%)
Cost Per Home Served (in dollars)
2003 0.1 1,306 292.2
2007 1.7 1,105 2,359.30
2011 9.4 938 7,066.60
2015 22 799 7,298.60
2019 35.4 683 5,253.10
2021 41.7 632 4,209.90
Sources: Render, Vanderslice & Associates, Fiber to the Homes and Optical
Broadband 2002 (Nov. 2002); Declaration of Darryl Ponder, CC Dkt. Nos.
01-338, 96-9898-147 (Nov. 18, 2002); Criterion Economics calculations.
Phone+
Research Firm: More than 1.2 Million U.S. Jobs Possible from Broadband
Rollouts
The new report concludes that the more than 250,000 telecom service and
equipment sector jobs lost between 2000 and 2003 could be restored inside
of five years. As many as 1.2 million new jobs could result over the next
decade from widespread adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies,
according to a study released by the New Millennium Research Council (www.milleniumresearch.org).
"This study documents quantitatively what many others have only hinted
at qualitatively," says Criterion Economics Senior Vice President Hal
Singer. "The 1.2 million jobs reflect the economy-wide stimulus that results
from telephone and cable industries competing to roll out DSL and cable
modem service, and gradually to roll out advanced broadband service to
residential and small business customers, assuming they were constrained
only by consumer demand and underlying costs."
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the communications services
sector lost 170,100 jobs between 2000 and 2003, Criterion Economics Chairman
Robert Crandall says. Employment in the communications equipment sector
decreased from 290,000 in December 2000 to 200,900 in January 2003-a total
of 89,100 lost jobs. "Across these two sectors of the communications industry,
over a quarter of a million jobs were lost over the 25-month period,"
says Crandall. We estimate that the capital expenditures by broadband
providers would more than restore those job losses by the end of 2008
if residential adoption follows this faster growth scenario."
The study shows that the new investments initially would focus on today's
broadband technologies. Before accounting for the effect of more advanced
access technologies, the authors estimate that capital expenditure on
today's broadband technologies will reach $63.6 billion by 2021 and create
a cumulative increase in gross domestic product of $179.7 billion.
"The emphasis in investment would gradually change over time, with fiber
optic in the `last mile' eventually replacing more than one-third of today's
broadband technology," says Singer. "Despite this displacement, the net
effect of advanced broadband investment would be $82 billion of investment
by 2021 under the slower deployment scenario."
According to the study, wider availability of broadband would result
in large benefits for the retailing, transportation, home entertainment
and health care sectors. In addition, the computer industry would experience
a surge in demand because consumers would acquire new PCs with more random
access memory, faster bus speeds, better sound and much higher capacity
hard drives to take full advantage of advanced broadband services.
"Unleashing the full potential of broadband communications could generate
$300 billion per year in consumer surplus," says Crandall. "As we found
in our earlier study, accelerating the adoption rate of current generation
broadband technologies could increase the present discounted value of
consumer benefits by as much as $500 billion.
"Lifting all remaining regulations on broadband would have an immediate
impact on the economy by stimulating greater investment and accelerated
job and income growth," continues Crandall. "For these investments to
be justified, however, regulators must assure investors that the returns
from investing in broadband technologies will not be appropriated through
the regulatory process. The estimates of benefits assume that incumbent
cable operators and local exchange carriers have an incentive to invest,
which will require not only unbundling relief, but also elimination of
existing common carrier regulations."
Telephony
1.2 million new jobs that could result over the next decade from widespread
adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies. 1 Source: New
Millennium Research Council
CableFax
Some 1.2mln jobs could be created during the next decade from widespread
adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies, a New Millennium
Research Council report says. Work by Criterion Economics found more than
250K telecom and equipment-sector jobs lost in the last 3 years could
be restored by '08.
SEPTEMBER 23, 2003
Broadband Business Report
1.2 Million New Jobs From Broadband?
The idea that widespread broadband availability will be an engine for
economic growth is well entrenched. But a new report from the New Millennium
Research Council and Criterion Economics LLC attempts to put a number
on that growth in terms of jobs created. At a time when the U.S. economy
is losing jobs faster than it is creating them, the report argues, broadband
could reverse the situation if (and it's a pretty big if) providers were
freed from regulatory burdens.
The telecom sector has been especially hard hit by job losses. More than
250,000 telecom service and equipment jobs have been lost since 2000.
Criterion Economics Senior VP Hal Singer argues that, were broadband providers,
"constrained only by consumer demand and underlying costs," cable and
telephone companies would accelerate the rollout of existing broadband
technologies and more quickly transition to more advanced broadband delivery
methods. The result would be new capital spending and the creation of
some 1.2 million new jobs over the next decade. The roughly quarter million
lost jobs of the last three years would be replaced by the end of 2008.
The early stage of this growth would be in existing technologies, DSL
and cable modems. The report projects capital expenditure of $63.6 billion
by 2021 and a cumulative increase in GDP of $179.7 billion. Over time,
however, the report's authors expect the emphasis to change to new technologies
like fiber. They project that "fiber in the last mile" would replace "more
than one third of today's broadband technology."
All that capital investment would lead to downstream bonuses like the
widespread purchase of better, faster computers with bigger hard drives
to store all that data being downloaded, etc. And with all that economic
activity would come jobs by the thousands.
Or it would if the FCC's Triennial Review Order hadn't failed to, "unleash
substantial investment in deploying digital subscriber line (DSL) and
cable broadband services to areas that are not yet able to subscribe to
them." To get all these new jobs and GDP, the report argues, we must not
only eliminate unbundling requirements but also "existing common carrier
regulations." In other words, the report appears to constitute an even
more extensive list of demands that must be met before the ILECs will
unlock the doors to broadband wonderland.
Whether or not the ILECs would ever deploy that level of broadband access
no matter what the incentives , even the report admits "it is evident
to most observers that years of litigation may cloud the economic case
for broadband investment."
In other words, the long-running ILEC/CLEC war isn't going to just end
because one side says things would be swell if the other side just vanished.
On the positive side, though, broadband's economic benefits come from
broadband itself, not who owns it. As other players gradually increase
broadband's reach, we'll have an opportunity to check the report's numbers
against real growth.
Hal Singer, Criterion Economics, 202/331-9738
Sky Reports
Millions of New Jobs Possible With Broadband
As many as 1.2 million new jobs could be created during the next decade
from the widespread adoption of existing and advanced broadband technologies,
stated a recent study released by the New Millennium Research Council
Council.
The new report from Criterion Economics, backed by the council, concluded
that more than 250,000 telecommunications service and equipment sector
jobs lost between 2000-2003 could be restored within five years.
Research from the firm said new investments initially would focus on
broadband technologies. The report authors estimated that capital expenditures
on broadband technologies will reach $63.6 billion by 2021 and create
a cumulative increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of $179.7 billion.
The report's backers also said the emphasis in investment would gradually
change over time, with fiber optic in the 'last mile' eventually replacing
more than one-third of today's broadband technology.
OCTOBER 1, 2003
Network World Fusion
Broadband roll-out to aid economy's ills, study finds
As service providers continue their efforts to make broadband service
as commonplace as regular telephone service, the U.S. economy will benefit
from more than $100 billion in investments by ISPs and the creation of
tens of thousands of jobs, according to a recent study issued by the New
Millennium Research Council. Criterion Economics conducted the study,
which was paid for by Verizon.
The study outlines two scenarios for universal broadband adoption: one
where it takes until 2021 for broadband to reach 95% of U.S. households
and the other where it takes until 2013 to reach this goal. Today, approximately
20% of U.S. households have broadband service while an additional 40%
have dial-up Internet service.
"If you accelerate the broadband roll-out so that consumers are getting
it sooner rather than later, the economy will benefit by about $500 billion,"
says Allen Hepner, an advisory board member for the New Millennium Research
Council.
Under the slower roll-out scenario, the study estimates that ISPs will
spend $146 billion on new network and customer premise equipment to support
DSL, cable modem, fiber to the home and other advanced Internet access
services through the year 2021. This level of capital expenditures by
ISPs would increase the nation's economic output by $414 billion and create
140,000 new jobs sustained per year, the study claims.
Under the rapid adoption scenario, the study estimates that broadband
providers will spend a total of $164 billion on capital equipment over
the next decade. The study claims that this higher level of investment
would boost the nation's gross domestic product by $465 billion and create
271,000 new jobs sustained per year.
The study's authors claim that these new jobs would replace all of those
lost in both the communications services and communications equipment
sectors from December 2000 to January 2003.
"Across these two sectors of the communications industry, over a quarter
of a million jobs were lost over the 25-month period," the study says.
"We estimate that the capital expenditures by broadband providers would
more than restore those job losses by the end of 2008 if residential adoption
follows this faster growth scenario."
The study goes further with its claims that widespread broadband adoption
will create a ripple effect in other industries such as education, healthcare,
hospitality, manufacturing, electronics and retail. Altogether, these
industries would receive an extra $66 billion in consumer spending and
create another 665,000 jobs from the accelerated adoption of residential
broadband.
"More than 1.2 million jobs may be created due to the ubiquitous residential
adoption of broadband," the study concludes.
The New Millennium Research Council and the authors of the study have
an agenda: they hope it encourages Congress and the Federal Communications
Commission to deregulate broadband and encourage incumbent carriers to
invest in new equipment and services.
"We're in the third year of a recession, and the recovery is very weak
at the bottom," says John Rutledge, chairman of Rutledge Capital and a
supporter of the study. "Deregulating telecommunications is one way to
stimulate growth and productivity and also make the deficit shrink...It
is the free lunch that economists have all been looking for."
